What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory

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What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory Simplifying The Market

You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary.

But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today.

To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner).

When you combine those two numbers, it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash (see graph below):

So, saying we’re near 2008 levels for new construction isn’t the same as the inventory surplus we did the last time.

Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade

And here’s some other important perspective you’re not going to get from those headlines. After the 2008 crash, builders slammed on the brakes. For 15 years, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with demand. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which we’re still dealing with today.

The graph below uses Census data to show the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), and the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange):

a graph of a number of unitsBasically, we had more than 15 straight years of underbuilding – and we’re only recently starting to slowly climb out of that hole. But there’s still a long way to go (even with the growth we’ve seen lately). Experts at Realtor.com say it would roughly 7.5 years to build enough homes to close the gap.

Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand is going to vary by market. Some markets may have more homes for sale, some less. But nationally, this isn’t like the last time.

Bottom Line

Just because there are more new homes for sale right now, it doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. The data shows today’s overall inventory situation is different.

If you have questions or want to talk about what builders are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers

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History Shows the Housing Market Always Recovers Simplifying The Market

Now that the market is slowing down, homeowners who haven’t sold at the price they were hoping for are increasingly pulling their homes off the market. According to the latest data from Realtor.com, the number of homeowners taking their homes off the market is up 38% since the start of this year and 48% since the same time last June. For every 100 new listings in June, about 21 homes were taken off the market.

And if you’ve made that same choice, you’re probably frustrated things didn’t go the way you wanted. It’s hard when you feel like the market isn’t working with you. But while slowdowns can be painful in the moment, history tells us they don’t last forever.

History Repeats Itself: Proof from the Past

This isn’t the first time the housing market has experienced a slowdown. Here are some other notable times when home sales dropped significantly:

  • 1980s: When mortgage rates climbed past 18%, buyers stopped cold. Sales crawled for years. But as soon as rates came down, sales surged back, and the market found its footing again.
  • 2008: The Great Financial Crisis was one of the toughest housing downturns in history. Sales and prices both dropped hard. Still, sales rebounded once the economy recovered.
  • 2020: During COVID, sales disappeared overnight, and many people had to put their plans on hold. Yet the recovery was faster than anyone expected, with a surge of buyers re-entering the market as soon as restrictions eased.

The lesson is clear: no matter the cause, the market always rebounds.

Today’s Situation: Where We Stand Now

Over the past few years, home sales have been sluggish. And one big reason why is affordability. Mortgage rates rose at a record-breaking pace in 2022, and home prices were climbing at the same time. That combination put buying out of reach for many people. And when demand slows, home sales do too.

The Outlook: Why Things Will Improve

But here’s the encouraging part. Forecasts show sales are expected to pick up again moving into 2026.

Last year, just about 4 million homes sold (shown in gray in the graph below). And this year is looking very similar (shown in blue). But the average of the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show the experts believe there will be around 4.6 million home sales in 2026 (shown in green).

And a big reason behind that projection is the expectation that mortgage rates will come down a bit, making it easier for more buyers to jump back in.

a graph of salesThat means what’s happening now is part of a cycle we’ve seen before. Every slowdown in the past has eventually given way to more activity, and this one will too.

Just like the 1980s, 2008, and 2020, today’s dip in home sales is temporary.

What That Means for You

If you’ve paused your moving plans, you did what you thought was right. Your frustration is valid. But it’s also important to remember the bigger picture. Housing slowdowns don’t last forever.

That’s where your local real estate agent comes in. Their job is to keep a close eye on the market for you. When the first signs of a rebound appear, they’ll help you spot the shift early so you can relist with confidence.

Bottom Line

If today’s housing market feels stuck, remember it’s never stayed down for good. Slowdowns end, activity returns, and people get moving again. So, connect with a local real estate agent, because when the next wave of buyers shows up, you won’t want to miss it.

As activity picks up again, will you be ready to put your house back on the market, or do you need to move sooner?

Should You Still Expect a Bidding War?

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Should You Still Expect a Bidding War? Simplifying The Market

If you’re still worried about having to deal with a bidding war when you buy a home, you may be able to let some of that fear go.

While multiple-offer situations haven’t disappeared entirely, they’re not nearly as common as they used to be. In fact, a recent survey shows agents reported only 1 in 5 homes (20%) nationally received multiple offers in June 2025.

That’s down from nearly 1 in 3 (31%) just a year ago – and dramatically lower than in June 2023 (39%) (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue and green barsThis trend means you should face less competition when you buy. That gives you more time to make decisions and the ability to negotiate price or terms.

It Still Depends on Where You’re Buying

Of course, national trends don’t tell the full story. Local dynamics matter, a lot. This second graph uses survey data from John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) to break things down by region to prove just how true that is. It shows, while the share of homes getting multiple offers has dropped pretty much everywhere, some areas are still seeing more offers than others:

a graph with numbers and textIn the Northeast, 34% of homes (roughly 1 in 3) are still receiving multiple offers. That’s more than the national average. But in Southeast, that number drops to just 6%. 

What’s behind the difference? In general, the areas still seeing bidding wars tend to have lower-than-normal inventory. That imbalance between buyers and available homes keeps pressure on prices and competition. But markets with more listings are seeing conditions cool – and that means fewer bidding wars. 

Sellers Are More Flexible Than You Might Think

Here’s another shift to show you just how much things have changed. According to a Redfin report, almost half of sellers are offering concessions, like covering their buyer’s closing costs or dropping their asking price to get their house sold.

That’s a clear sign this isn’t the same ultra-competitive market we saw a few years ago. Back then, sellers rarely compromised. And buyers often waived their inspection or appraisal to try to make their offer stand out. Now, things are different.

But again, how often this is happening is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. And that’s why you need a local agent’s expertise.

Bottom Line

If concerns about bidding wars have been holding you back, it may be time to take another look. Nationally, competition is down. In some markets, it’s down significantly. And with more sellers offering concessions, buyers today have more power and flexibility than they’ve had in a long time.

Want to find out what the market looks like where you’re buying? Connect with a local agent.

From Frenzy to Breathing Room: Buyers Finally Have Time Again

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From Frenzy to Breathing Room: Buyers Finally Have Time Again Simplifying The Market

If you tried to buy a home a few years ago, you probably still remember the frenzy. Homes were listed one day and gone the next. Sometimes it only took hours. You had to drop everything to go and see the house, and if you hesitated even slightly, someone else swooped in and bought it – sometimes even sight unseen.

That kind of intensity pushed a lot of buyers to the sidelines. It was stressful, chaotic, and for many, really discouraging.

But here’s what you need to know: those days are behind us.

Today’s market is moving slower, in the best possible way. And that’s creating more opportunity for buyers who felt shut out in recent years.

The Stat That Changes Everything

According to the latest data, homes are spending an average of 58 days on the market. That’s much more normal. And it’s a big improvement compared to the height of the pandemic, when homes were flying off the shelves in a matter of days (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars with white textThat means you now have more time to make decisions than you have at any point in the past five years. And that’s a big deal. Now, you’ve got:

Time to think.

Time to negotiate.

Time to make a smart move without all the pressure.

More Time Means Less Stress (and More Leverage)

Based on the data in the graph above, you have an extra week to decide compared to last year. And nearly double the time you would have had at the market’s peak.

Back then, fear of missing out drove buyers to act fast, sometimes too fast. Today, the pace is slower, which means you’re in control. As Bankrate puts it:

“For years, buyers have been racing to snag homes because of the fierce competition. But the market’s cooled off a bit now, and that gives buyers some breathing room. Homes are staying listed longer, so buyers can slow down, weigh their options and make more confident decisions.”

With more homes on the market and fewer buyers racing to grab them, the balance has shifted. Bidding wars aren’t as common, and that means you may have room to negotiate. And you can actually take a breath before you make your decision.

More listings + a slower pace = less stress and more opportunity

But, and this is important, it still depends on where you’re buying. Nationally, homes are moving slower. But your local market sets your real pace. Some states are moving faster than others. It may even vary down to the specific zip code or neighborhood you’re looking at. And that’s why working with an agent to know what’s happening in your area is more important than ever. 

To see how your state compares to the national average (58 days), check out the map below:

a map of the united statesAs Realtor.com explains:

“While national headlines might suggest a buyer’s market is taking hold, the reality on the ground depends heavily on where and what you’re trying to buy. Local trends can diverge sharply from national averages, especially when you factor in price range, property type, and post-pandemic market dynamics.”

A smart local agent can tell you exactly when to move fast and when you can take your time, so you never miss the right home for you.

Bottom Line

If the chaos of the past few years drove you to hit pause, this is your green light. The market’s pace has shifted. You have more time. More options. More power.

And with the right agent guiding you, you’re in the best position you’ve been in for years.

Connect with a local agent to talk about what the pace looks like in your area, and if now could be the right time for you to re-enter the market.

Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers

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Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers Simplifying The Market

Not every homebuyer wants the biggest house on the block. Some want something simpler, more affordable, and easier to maintain, especially in a market where every dollar counts. That’s where condos come in.

For first-time buyers, they can be a smart way to get into homeownership without stretching your budget. For downsizers, they offer less space to maintain with the flexibility to stay in a great location.

And right now, condos are one of the most buyer-friendly parts of the market.

Condo Inventory Is Up, And That Means More Choice

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there are 194,000 condos for sale right now. That’s the second highest amount we’ve seen in the last three years (see graph below):

a graph of blue lines with white text

Just remember, this is the national figure. The exact number is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. But, generally speaking, you have more options and less competition.

You’re not stuck waiting for something to pop up or rushing into an offer just to beat someone else to it. You’ve got plenty to choose from. And if you’re particular about layout, location, or amenities, this is your chance to be selective.

That’s a big shift from the market frenzy of just a few years ago. Compared to early 2022, we’ve got nearly double the condos available now. That gives you more breathing room to find the right fit.

Prices Are Cooling, and Buyers Hold More Negotiating Power

And since there are more for sale, many sellers are more open to negotiating right now. So, you may be able to get a better price. As Redfin explains:

“. . . condo buyers in many cities may be able to find sellers who are willing to give concessions and/or sell for less than their asking price.”

Condo prices are starting to ease in many markets. According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), condo prices dipped 1.3% in June compared to last year. And over half of the top 100 U.S. metros saw condo prices drop slightly year-over-year.

Data from Redfin shows what the recent dip in prices looks like (see graph below):

a graph showing the price of a sales increaseThat doesn’t just help with affordability, it also shifts the power dynamic. Condo buyers in many markets are now in a position to negotiate on price and ask for concessions, like help with closing costs.

Bottom Line

Condos aren’t just a fallback option. In today’s market, they’re one of the most strategic ways to buy. With more options, softening prices, and more room to negotiate, now could be the right time to make your move.

Could a condo check more boxes than you expected? Talk through your options with a local real estate agent and find out.

More Contracts Are Falling Through. Here’s How To Get Ahead.

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More Contracts Are Falling Through. Here’s How To Get Ahead. Simplifying The Market

When you sell a house, the last thing you want is for the deal to fall apart right before closing. But according to the latest data from Redfin, that’s happening a bit more often lately. The good news is, it’s completely avoidable if you lean on an agent for insight into why that is and how to avoid it happening to you.

This June, 15% of pending home sales fell through. That means those buyers backed out of their contracts. That’s not too much higher than the norm of roughly 12% from 2017-2019, but it’s still an increase. And it’s one you don’t want to have to deal with. 

The key to avoiding this headache is knowing what’s causing the issues that lead to a buyer walking away. A recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) finds that agents reported the #1 reason deals are falling apart today is stemming from the home inspection (see graph below):

a graph of a number of individualsHere’s why. With high prices and mortgage rates stretching buyers’ budgets, they don’t have a lot of room (or appetite) for unexpected repairs.

Not to mention, buyers have more options to choose from now that there are more homes on the market. So, if the inspection turns up a major issue, they may opt to walk away. Afterall, there are plenty of other homes they could buy instead.

Or, if the seller isn’t willing to tackle repairs, a buyer may back out because they don’t want the expense (and the hassle) of dealing with those issues themselves.

The good news is, there’s a way you can get ahead of any unpleasant surprises as a seller, and that’s getting a pre-listing inspection. It’s not required, but the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains why it’s helpful right now:

“To keep deals from unraveling . . . it allows a seller the opportunity to address any repairs before the For Sale sign even goes up. It also can help avoid surprises like a costly plumbing problem, a failing roof or an outdated electrical panel that could cause financially stretched buyers to bolt before closing.”

What’s a Pre-Listing Inspection?

It’s exactly what it sounds like: a professional home inspection you schedule before your home hits the market. Here’s what it can do for you:

  • Give you time to fix what matters. You’ll know what issues could come up in the buyer’s inspection. So, you’ll have time to take care of them before anyone even walks through the door.
  • Avoid last-minute renegotiations. When buyers uncover unexpected issues after you’re under contract, it opens the door for concessions you may have to make like price drops or repairs, or worse, a canceled deal. A pre-listing inspection helps you stay ahead of those things before they become deal breakers.
  • Show buyers you’re serious. When your home is clean, well-maintained, and already vetted, buyers see that. It builds trust and can help you sell faster with fewer back-and-forth negotiations.

The bottom line? A few hundred dollars upfront can save you thousands later.

Should Every Seller Do This?

Not necessarily. Your real estate agent can help you decide what makes the most sense for your situation, your house, and your market. If you decide to move forward with a pre-listing inspection, your agent will guide you every step of the way. They’ll:

  • Advise on whether to fix or disclose each issue
  • Help you prioritize repairs based on what buyers in your area care about
  • Make sure you understand your local disclosure laws

Bottom Line

If you want to avoid potential snags in your deal, a pre-listing inspection could be the way to go. Connect with an agent to go over whether a pre-listing inspection is the right move for your house and market. 

Would you rather find out about a major repair now, when you can handle it on your terms – or after you’re under contract, when the clock is ticking?

Is It Better To Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates? Here’s the Tradeoff

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Is It Better To Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates? Here’s the Tradeoff Simplifying The Market

Mortgage rates are still a hot topic – and for good reason. After the most recent jobs report came out weaker than expected, the bond market reacted almost instantly. And, as a result, in early August mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point so far this year (6.55%).

While that may not sound like a big deal, pretty much every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect?

According to the latest forecasts, rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically anytime soon. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026 (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and linesIn other words, no big changes are expected. But small shifts, like the one we just saw, are still likely. 

Each time there’s changing economic news, there’s a chance mortgage rates will react. And with so many reports coming out this week, we’ll get a better feeling of where the economy and inflation are headed – and how rates will respond.

What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?

The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:

  • 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home
  • And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates?

Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:

“Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”

Consider the unique window that exists right now:

  • Inventory is up = more choices
  • Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing
  • You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal

These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:

“Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t expected to hit 6% this year. But when they do, you’ll have to deal with more competition as other buyers jump back in. If you want less pressure and more negotiating power, that opportunity is already here – and it might not last for long. It all depends on what happens in the economy next.

Talk to a local agent about what’s happening in your area and whether it makes sense to make your move now, before everyone else does.

Are These Myths About Buying a Newly Built Home Holding You Back?

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Are These Myths About Buying a Newly Built Home Holding You Back? Simplifying The Market

If you’ve been skipping over newly built homes in your search, you might be doing so based on outdated assumptions. Let’s clear up a few of the most common myths, so you don’t miss out on a solid opportunity.

Myth 1: New Homes Are More Expensive

It’s easy to assume a new build will cost more than an existing home, but that’s not necessarily true, especially right now.

Data from Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the median price of a newly built home today is actually lower than a home that’s been lived in already (an existing home):

a graph of sales and pricesSo, why’s this happening? As Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“This largely reflects two trends: New homes are getting smaller on average, and builders are doing more price cuts.”

If you’ve ruled out new construction based on price alone, it’s time to take another look. Talk to your local real estate agent to see what’s available (and at what price points).

Myth 2: Builders Don’t Negotiate

Many buyers assume builders aren’t going to play ball when it comes time to negotiate. But that’s just not the case. A number of builders are sitting on finished inventory they want to sell quickly. And that makes them more open to compromising. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains a builder:

“. . . would love to sell you the home because they’re not living in it. It costs money not to sell the home. And many of the public home builders have said in their earnings calls that they are not going to be pulling back on incentives, especially the mortgage rate buydown . . .” 

That means you may find builders more flexible than individual sellers, and more motivated to toss in incentives to get the deal done. According to Zonda, 75% of new home communities offered incentives on new homes considered quick move-ins in June.

Myth 3: They Don’t Build Them Like They Used To

Some people think newer homes lack the craftsmanship of older ones. But here’s a reality check. Quality can vary in any era. And using a reputable builder matters more than the build date.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a good way to gauge quality is by talking to buyers who have purchased from that builder recently. In an article, NAHB explains:

“Any high-quality builder should be ready to provide you with the names and phone numbers of satisfied customers. If they cannot, consider that a red flag and walk away.”

The article suggests asking those buyers questions like:

  • Did the builder meet their expectations?
  • Would you use that same builder, if you were to do it again?

But you can also ask your agent about the builder’s reputation. Generally, agents know about the builders active in your area and may even have experience with past clients who have bought a home in one of that builder’s communities.

Myth 4: You Don’t Need Your Own Real Estate Agent

This might be the biggest myth of all. The truth is, when you buy a brand-new home, using your own agent is even more important. Builder contracts have different fine print, and you’ll want a pro on your side who can really explain what you’re signing and advocate for your best interests.

These stats seem to prove that’s the case. In a Realtor.com survey, buyers who purchased a newly built home rated their agents far more helpful than the builder (or the builder’s representative) during the process (see visual below):a screenshot of a graph

Bottom Line

Don’t let misconceptions keep you from exploring one of the most promising options in today’s housing market.

Whether you’re curious about what’s being built nearby or wondering if a new home fits your budget, connect with a local agent. You might be surprised by what’s out there.

What You Need To Know About Concessions

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What You Need To Know About Concessions Simplifying The Market

a screenshot of a phone

Some Highlights

  • Now that there are more homes for sale, buyers have more options. And sellers need to be more flexible to close the deal.
  • That’s why almost half of homeowners are making some type of concession. This can include covering closing costs, paying for repairs, or dropping the price.
  • Not sure which concessions to offer? Connect with a local agent so you know what’s working for sellers in your market.

Online Home-Buying Search Terms Recently Hit 2-Year High

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Online Home-Buying Search Terms Recently Hit 2-Year High Simplifying The Market

Believe it or not, there are clear signs buyer interest is heating up again.

Let’s talk about what’s really going on behind the scenes, and why the housing market might not be as quiet out there as it seems. 

Buyers Are Looking, and Search Trends Prove It

One of the clearest ways to measure what people are thinking about is to look at what they’re searching for online. And according to Google Trends, searches for phrases like “home for sale” have been climbing steadily this year.

The graph below shows an index of two common homebuyer search phrases and how popular they were on Google over the past two years. The higher the line goes, the more popular that phrase was. A 100 on the graph shows the most popular time for each phrase:

a graph of a number of peopleHere’s what really stands out in this data. Both phrases have been trending up overall this year, and they hit a recent high in mid-July. That’s a pretty strong sign that curiosity (and maybe even interest) in buying a home is improving.

That kind of momentum means something. Despite high mortgage rates and home prices, buyers haven’t given up. They’re still watching the market. They’re still browsing. And many are just waiting for the right opportunity to act. Maybe your house is exactly what they’re looking for. But you’ll never know if it’s not listed yet.

Now, this doesn’t mean demand is going to surge like it did during the pandemic. It just means some buyers are deciding they can’t wait any longer. And those are exactly the kind of buyers you want. Motivated. Eager. Ready to move when the right house comes along.

So, if you’re holding off on selling because you’re not sure if the demand is there, this data suggests it might be time to rethink your plans. Because while it’s not 2021-level demand, it doesn’t need to be. You don’t need ten offers to sell your home. You just need the right buyer.

And that buyer may be searching for a house like yours right now.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been thinking, “I’ll sell once buyers come back,” you might want to take another look. Online search trends show they’re already interested.

What would make you feel confident putting your house on the market this year? Connect with a local real estate agent to talk through it.